JPMorgan Warns of Oil Market Shock if Kharg Island Falls
JPMorgan analysts warn that any U.S.-Israeli military action seizing Iran's Kharg Island could immediately halve Iran's oil output, removing 4.5% of global supply. The strategic export terminal handles 90% of Iran's crude shipments. Historical precedents from the 1979 hostage crisis and 1980s Tanker War show Washington has previously avoided direct strikes on the facility.
Such an attack would likely trigger Iranian retaliation targeting Hormuz Strait shipping lanes or regional energy infrastructure, potentially spiking oil prices. The bank notes Iran currently produces 3.3 million barrels/day of crude plus 1.3 million in condensates, making it OPEC's third-largest producer.